State of the Economy in Numbers

State of the Economy in Numbers


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Economy


In 2025, the economy expanded as GDP increased, inflation decreased slightly, and the size of imports and exports shifted. These and other measures provide a snapshot of economic activity, prices, and the labor market heading into 2026.


The basics


$31T
Gross domestic product (2025)


2.4%
12-month percent change in CPI (January 2026)


$901B
Trade deficit (2025)


How is the economy doing?


In 2025, the economy grew and employment remained steady, while inflation and interest rates fell.


Gross domestic product (GDP) reached $30.8 trillion in 2025. Real GDP (rGDP), which accounts for inflation, increased by 2.2%, equal to the 2000 to 2024 average annual rate.


Real GDP increased 2.2% from 2024 to 2025.


Annual percent change in real gross domestic product (GDP)


Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Read more about GDP



Year-over-year inflation — the rate at which consumer prices increase — was 2.4% in January 2026. The average monthly inflation rate in 2025 was 2.6%, slightly lower than the 2024 average rate of 2.9%. Housing was the largest contributor to monthly inflation growth.


Year-over-year inflation — the rate at which consumer prices increase — was 2.4% in January 2026.


Year-over-year percent change of CPI-U, all items, seasonally adjusted

Due to the 2025 government shutdown, the BLS did not publish October 2025 data.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Read more about inflation and the CPI



The Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered the federal funds rate three times in 2025; it currently sits between 3.5% and 3.75%. This range guides the rate at which banks lend to each other, while the effective federal funds rate reflects the average rate banks actually pay. Adjusting this target range is one way the Fed pursues its dual mandate of controlling inflation and maximizing employment.


The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate. It sits between 3.5% and 3.75%.


Federal funds effective rate, by month


Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Read more about interest rates



The unemployment rate was 4.3% in January 2026. A couple months prior, in November 2025, the rate was the highest since late 2021, at 4.5%.


The unemployment rate was 4.3% in January 2026.


Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted

Due to the 2025 government shutdown, the BLS did not publish October 2025 data.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Read more about the unemployment rate


The average annual labor force participation rate decreased slightly to 62.4% in 2025 after staying the same from 2023 to 2024. The rate is the percentage of the population ages 16 and older who are either employed or actively seeking work. It's been trending downward since 2000, due to the nation's aging population.


The average annual labor force participation rate decreased to 62.4% in 2025.


Labor force participation rate, annual average

Due to the 2025 government shutdown, the BLS did not publish October 2025 data. Annual estimates for 2025 are 11-month averages that exclude October.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Read more about labor force participation


What's going on with international trade?


New tariffs and global economic shifts altered US trade flows in 2025. Looking at how imports and exports changed helps explain the nation’s trade balance and its connection to the global economy.


In 2025, the US imported $4.3 trillion and exported $3.4 trillion in goods and services, resulting in a $901.5 billion trade deficit. This deficit was lower than in 2024 due to higher exports and lower imports throughout 2025.


In 2025, the US had a $901.5 billion trade deficit.


Trade balance, by component, not adjusted for inflation


Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Read more about the trade balance


In 2025, the average monthly effective tariff rate was 7.9%. The rate shows how much the US collects in customs duties as a percentage of the total value of imported goods. However, imports may have different tariff rates (or none at all) depending on various factors like country of origin, product type, trade agreements, and much more.


In 2025, the average monthly effective tariff rate was 7.9%.


Monthly average effective tariff rate (customs duty revenue as a share of good imports)


Source: Census Bureau
Read more about tariff rates



In FY 2025, the federal government collected $194.9 billion, or 4% of total revenue, from customs duties (tariffs and other import fees). It was more than two times larger than it was in FY 2024. As of January, approximately $117.7 billion in customs duties have been collected for FY 2026, already exceeding the FY 2024 total.


The federal government collected nearly $200 billion from customs duties in FY 2025.


Cumulative monthly customs duties revenue, not adjusted for inflation


Source: Department of the Treasury
Read more about tariff revenue



The nation's top trading partners in 2024 were Mexico, Canada, and China (when adding imports and exports). Mexico became the nation’s top trading partner for the first time. Trade with the top six trading partners accounted for 48% of the total.


The nation’s top trading partners in 2024 were Mexico, Canada, and China.


Share of total trade value (imports + exports), by country


Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Read more about US trading partners

Tens of thousands march against far right in London ahead of local elections - France 24

Tens of thousands march against far right in London ahead of local elections - France 24

Tens of thousands march against far right in London ahead of local elections
EUROPE

Tens of thousands of protesters marched through central London on Saturday in a major show of opposition to the far right, weeks before key elections and amid growing support for hard-right movements in the UK.


Issued on: 28/03/2026 - 16:19Modified: 29/03/2026 - 12:08
3 minReading time
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FRANCE 24
The march was organised by hundreds of groups, including trade unions, anti-racism campaigners and Muslim representative bodies. © Henry Nicholls, AFP



Tens of thousands of people marched through central London Saturday to protest against the far right, weeks ahead of local elections and six months after Britain saw one of its largest far-right demonstrations.

Organised by hundreds of civic groups, including trade unions, anti-racism campaigners and Muslim representative bodies, Saturday's Together Alliance event was billed as the biggest in UK history to counter right-wing extremism.

A separate pro-Palestinian march had also converged with the main rally.

While organisers claimed half a million had turned out in total, the police gave a figure of around 50,000.

Protesters carrying placards with slogans like "no to racism" and "you cannot divide us" marched from near Marble Arch to Whitehall near the UK parliament for a planned rally featuring various speakers.

They included left-wing politicians like Zack Polanski, leader of the increasingly popular Green Party, singer Billy Bragg and members of English reggae band UB40.

"Days like this are here to send a message... we are unstoppable," Polanski told the event, which appeared to have attracted people of all ages from across Britain.
Members of the 'Red Rebel Brigade', a climate activist group, joined the march. © Henry Nicholls, AFP


Student Emily Roth said there was "a global toxic climate and the UK is not fighting it".

"The government is obsessed with immigration but that's not our biggest problem," the 23-year-old said as she walked the route.

The London police, which had promised a "significant policing presence" to ensure various protests passed off safely and lawfully, later said officers had made 25 arrests.

It noted 18 of those followed an alleged protest near the Together Alliance rally in support of Palestine Action, an activist group banned under anti-terror law.

WATCH MOREEngland's extreme patriots? Inside the growing nationalist movement

The London force announced earlier this week it would resume such arrests after pausing them in the wake of the High Court last month upholding a challenge against the government ban.
'We've been there with Brexit'

The Together Alliance march followed a rally organised last September by far-right activist Tommy Robinson that drew up to 150,000 people, many of whom draped themselves in English and British flags.

That event was marred on its fringes by what police called "unacceptable violence" which saw clashes with officers that left several of them seriously injured.
Police said they had a 'significant presence' at the march. © Henry Nicholls, AFP


Robinson is planning a follow-up rally in mid-May.

Saturday's march also came less than six weeks before voters head to the polls for elections to Scotland's parliament, the devolved assembly in Wales and local councils in London as well as some other parts of England.

Anti-immigration figurehead Nigel Farage's hard-right Reform UK party, which has been leading in national polls for over a year, is predicted to perform well across the contests.

Robert Gadwick, 48, who had travelled from Bath in western England for Saturday's march, said he was "worried" about Reform's rise.

READ MORE'Stop the boats': British far-right activists accused of harassing migrants in Calais

"We've been there with Brexit – it's all the same lies and yet some people decide to believe it," he told AFP.

Retiree Rose Batterfield, of central England, echoed the sentiment, saying the "current political climate" concerned her.

"I don't really recognise Labour anymore," she said of the country's centre-left ruling party which has been criticised for shifting to the right.

"The idea that you can implement far-right ideas in order to stop the far right is nonsense."

Trump Admin to Pay TotalÉnergies $1B to Walk Away From U.S. Offshore Wind Leases

Trump Admin to Pay TotalÉnergies $1B to Walk Away From U.S. Offshore Wind Leases

Trump Admin to Pay TotalÉnergies $1B to Walk Away From U.S. Offshore Wind Leases
March 23, 2026
Reading time: 4 minutes

Full Story: The Associated Press
Author: Jennifer Mcdermott And Matthew Daly



Kim Hansen/Wikimedia Commons



The Trump administration will pay $1 billion to a French company to walk away from two United States offshore wind leases as the administration ramps up its campaign against offshore wind and other renewable energy.

TotalEnergies has agreed to what’s essentially a refund of its leases for projects off the coasts of North Carolina and New York, and will invest the money in fossil fuel projects instead, the Department of Interior announced Monday.

President Donald Trump’s administration has tried to halt offshore wind construction, but federal judges repeatedly overturned those orders.

The Interior Department hailed the “innovative agreement” with the French energy giant and said, “the American people will no longer pay for ideological subsidies that benefited only the unreliable and costly offshore wind industry.″

Environmental groups denounced the deal as an alternate way to block wind projects, with one group calling it a “billion-dollar bribe” to kill clean energy.

“After losing again and again in court on his illegal stop-work orders, Trump has found another way to strangle offshore wind: pay them to walk away,” said Lena Moffitt, executive director of Evergreen Action.

In his second term, Trump has gone all in on fossil fuels, which he says will lower costs for families, increase reliability and help the U.S. maintain global leadership in artificial intelligence.

TotalEnergies had already paused its two projects after Trump was elected.

The company pledged to not develop any new offshore wind projects in the United States. CEO Patrick Pouyanné said in a statement that TotalEnegeries renounced offshore wind development in the United States in exchange for the reimbursement of the lease fees, “considering that the development of offshore wind projects is not in the country’s interest.”

Pouyanné said the refunded lease fees will finance the construction of a liquefied natural gas plant in Texas and the development of its oil and gas activities, calling it a “more efficient use of capital” in the U.S.

After it makes those investments, TotalEnergies will be reimbursed, up to the amount paid in lease purchases for offshore wind, according to the DOI.

“We welcome TotalEnergies’ commitment to developing projects that produce dependable, affordable power to lower Americans’ monthly bills,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a statement.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, said Trump was “using a pay-not-to-play scheme” to pressure the French company not to build offshore wind, calling it “an outrageous abuse of taxpayer dollars.” Hochul said she remains committed to moving forward with an “all-of-the-above approach” that includes renewables, nuclear power and other energy sources.

The Biden administration sought to ramp up offshore wind as a climate change solution. Trump began reversing U.S. energy policies his first day in office with executive orders aimed at boosting oil, gas and coal. Globally the offshore wind market is growing, with China leading the world in new installations.

The Interior Department halted construction on five major East Coast offshore wind projects days before Christmas, citing national security concerns. Developers and states sued, and federal judges allowed all five projects to resume construction, essentially concluding that the government did not show the risk was so imminent that construction must halt.

On Monday, one of the wind farms targeted by the administration, Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind, started delivering power to the grid for Virginia. The developer, Richmond-based Dominion Energy, announced the milestone.

Ted Kelly, clean energy director at the Environmental Defense Fund, called the proposed deal “an outrageous misuse of taxpayer dollars to prevent Americans from having clean, affordable power exactly when they need it most.”

East Coast states are building offshore wind because it boosts affordable electricity supply on the grid, even as natural gas prices are rising, Kelly said.

TotalEnergies purchased a lease for its Carolina Long Bay project in 2022 for about $133,000. It aimed to generate more than 1 gigawatt there, enough to power about 300,000 homes. It purchased the lease off New York and New Jersey, also in 2022, for $795,000. This was planned as a larger project, with the potential to generate 3 gigawatts of clean energy to power nearly one million homes.

This Associated Press story was published March 23, 2026, by The Associated Press.

Meta is a big loser

 

Meta is a big ol’ loser (in court)

Apu Gomes/Getty Images

In what could be the beginning of social media’s Big Tobacco moment, Instagram’s owner just failed to beat the “you’re-harming-your-users” allegations, twice: Yesterday, Meta and Google’s YouTube lost a landmark social media addiction trial in California, one day after Meta lost a separate child safety case in New Mexico. In California, Meta and YouTube were accused of designing their apps to be addictive through features like infinite scroll: The jury found them negligent for running platforms that harmed adolescents and failing to warn the public about this danger. Meta and YouTube are ordered to pay $4.2 million and $1.8 million, respectively, to the plaintiff, a 20-year-old woman who said she became addicted to Instagram and YouTube as a child, which intensified her depression and other mental health struggles. Meta said it “respectfully” disagreed with the decision and would appeal, a move YouTube also plans to make. This was a bellwether case, meaning it tested the waters for thousands of similar lawsuits in the pipeline. Social media giants may now feel less confident about their chances in court, especially because Section 230—a legal rule that says platforms aren’t responsible for harmful content users post on their sites—didn’t protect them from liability this time. Plaintiffs (and prosecutors) are loopholing the loophole by focusing on platform design rather than content. Meanwhile, in New Mexico… On Tuesday, a jury ordered Meta to pay $375 million for failing to protect its young users from sexually explicit content, trafficking, and other online dangers. The case followed a Chris-Hansen-like operation in which state investigators set up decoy accounts of minors, which they said were overwhelmed with solicitations from predators. Meta plans to appeal that decision, too. More state and federal trials are coming this year, including one from school districts and parents nationwide who accuse Meta, YouTube, TikTok, and Snap of harming youth mental health.

BYD Eyes Canadian Manufacturing, But Shuts the Door on Joint Venture

BYD Eyes Canadian Manufacturing, But Shuts the Door on Joint Venture

BYD Eyes Canadian Manufacturing, But Shuts the Door on Joint Venture
March 18, 2026
Reading time: 3 minutes

Author: Compiled by The Energy Mix staff
Full Story: The Energy Mix




Chinese electric vehicle giant BYD is open to acquiring a competing manufacturer and setting up shop to produce cars in Canada—but not if it means entering a joint venture with another company.

“The Shenzhen-based automaker is studying the Canadian market for a potential manufacturing facility, although no decision has been made,” Bloomberg News reports, citing an interview with BYD Executive Vice President Stella Li.

“Perhaps more striking than the Canada factory talk is Li’s candid acknowledgment that BYD is evaluating potential acquisitions of established automakers,” Electrek writes. “Several American, European, and Japanese manufacturers are struggling under the financial strain of maintaining both combustion and electric vehicle product lines simultaneously.”

But while “we’re open to every opportunity we have,” Li said, “I don’t think a JV [joint venture] will work.”

In mid-January, Prime Minister Mark Carney agreed to sharply reduce tariffs on electric vehicle imports from China, while China offered up tariff relief for Canadian canola, peas, pork, and seafood. At the time, Canadian observers predicted lower EV prices and possible long-term advantages for the country’s automotive industrial base.

Canada agreed to slash duties on up to 49,000 Chinese EVs per year to a “most-favoured-nation tariff rate” of 6.1%, Carney’s office said in a release. The imports will amount to less than 3% of annual new vehicle sales in Canada, but “will drive considerable new Chinese joint-venture investment in Canada with trusted partners to protect and create new auto manufacturing careers for Canadian workers, and ensure a robust buildout of Canada’s EV supply chain,” the PMO said.

Days later, Carney said he saw the deal as an opportunity for Ontario’s automaking heartland. “We’ve had direct conversations directly from the Chinese companies… with explicit interest and intention to partner with Canadian companies,” he told media during a stopover in Doha, Qatar. “We’ll see what comes to pass. This is an opportunity for Ontario. It’s an opportunity for Ontario workers, opportunity for Canada, done in a controlled way with a modest start.”

Now, Bloomberg says BYD is looking at expanding its reach in overseas markets where it can repeat the “Brazil model”, a marketing and sales approach that has worked well for it in South America and Europe. “Buying existing production capacity with trained work forces is faster and cheaper than building greenfield—and BYD appears to be applying the same logic globally,” Electrek explains.

One place the company isn’t considering an expansion is the United States, a “complicated environment” where tariffs on Chinese-made vehicles exceed 100% and connected car technology is banned.

BYD’s sales fell 36%, to 400,241 vehicles, in the first two months of this year, both news outlets say. “But exports gained momentum, and the company is targeting 1.3 million overseas vehicle sales for the full year,” Electrek reports. “Li said BYD’s recently launched next-generation Blade Battery and ultra-fast flash charging architecture, capable of delivering up to 1,500 kW, will help reverse the domestic sales dip.”

 

Private credit is having a very public freakout

Morning Brew Design

Jittery private credit investors are rushing for the exits just like your coworkers when you start microwaving leftover salmon for lunch. This week, investment giants Apollo Global Management and Ares said they are limiting payouts to shareholders in their private credit funds as investors’ requests to pull their cash soar across the industry. Meanwhile, Moody’s downgraded the credit rating of a private credit fund run by KKR and Future Standard yesterday, sending its debt into “junk” territory after more of its borrowers stopped paying their loans. The news adds to Wall Street’s anxiety about the health of a $1.8 trillion industry that’s suffered from significant defaults and faces fears that it’ll get pummelled if AI disrupts software companies—which JPMorgan estimates account for 30% of its loans. Rationing cash Private credit funds, which plug investors’ money into risky loans to midsized companies, typically guarantee that they’ll offer to pay out 5-7% of the value of the investments quarterly. But last quarter, cash supply couldn’t keep up with withdrawal demand: Investors in Apollo’s and Ares’s private credit funds asked to exchange over 11% of their shares for cash. Both companies said they’ll pay out less than half of what investors asked for to ensure total payouts don’t exceed 5% of the fund’s value. Meanwhile, private credit peers like Blackstone and Blue Owl Capital have sought to calm investors by letting them pull more cash than the guaranteed minimum. Banks try to see the upside After post-2008 financial crisis regulations restricted banks’ ability to lend to risky borrowers, private credit swooped in to occupy that niche. Now, banking giants like JPMorgan—whose CEO, Jamie Dimon, is a longtime skeptic of the opaque industry—are letting clients bet against private credit. But it’s no gloatfest…as many private credit lenders are also bank borrowers, which means the likes of JPMorgan could get caught in the turmoil.

Alberta Won’t Recover $250M in Property Taxes from Deadbeat Fossils, Minister Admits

Alberta Won’t Recover $250M in Property Taxes from Deadbeat Fossils, Minister Admits

Alberta Won’t Recover $250M in Property Taxes from Deadbeat Fossils, Minister Admits
March 18, 2026
Reading time: 3 minutes

Author: Compiled by The Energy Mix staff
Full Story: The Energy Mix



Hillebrand Steve/Pixnio



The Alberta government is admitting that it won’t likely recover $250 million in property taxes that oil and gas companies owe rural municipalities, even though it hopes to get the problem under control in future.

A report issued Monday by the province, Rural Municipalities Alberta (RMA), and the Property Tax Accountability Strategy Working Group [pdf] laid out 17 recommendations to prevent future instances of deadbeat fossils failing to pay their taxes,. “They range from making property tax payment a condition of holding or maintaining an Alberta Energy Regulator licence to making property tax payment a key measure of industry and regulatory performance,” CBC reports.

The report concluded that 96% of oil and gas companies do pay their taxes. But Municipal Affairs Minister Dan Williams acknowledged it’ll be harder to collect from “companies that are winding down, companies that don’t exist anymore. and companies in bankruptcy processes will not have the capacity to pay,” the news story states.

He singled out companies “that have obligations to reclaim that land environmentally—we appreciate that a lot of that isn’t going to come forward, isn’t going to be paid back to the province or municipalities.”

“The majority of past arrears are fundamentally unrecoverable,” Williams told media. “We can’t go back and collect from companies that don’t exist anymore.”

But Energy and Minerals Minister Brian Jean said the province will be more vigilant about companies that try to keep operating after falling behind on their local taxes.

“What happens at the end of a life cycle of some of these oil fields or gas fields that are not producing the wealth that they used to produce, is that the leaders of those companies often strip off the value and find ways to pay what they prioritize to pay,” Jean said. “And what we need to do is make sure the communication is there well in advance, so that as that starts to happen, we’re able to torque up enforcement and take away their ability to continue to operate and take over that situation.”

RMA President Kara Westerlund told media the province’s rural municipalities are facing a $25-billion infrastructure deficit, and they’ve been trying to draw attention to it for years. “Every penny and every cent collected will more than likely go to infrastructure needs within our municipalities,” she said. “We’re talking roads, bridges, culverts, wastewater, and water.”

Central Alberta landowner Dwight Popovich, a member of the Coalition for Responsible Energy (C4RE), said he’s finally receiving the years of tax payments he’s owed on an orphaned well 120 kilometres east of Edmonton—but the money is coming from taxpayers, not the company.

“It shouldn’t be landowners or taxpayers having to pay anything for any of this problem that’s been created,” he said Tuesday. “This report that’s just come out is another one of those times where they’re ignoring us.”

Last week, landowner and C4RE member Mark Dorin tore up an active lease held by Calgary-based MAGA Energy and blockaded an active well site, three years after unpaid rent had begun to accumulate, the organization reports.

“Pay your damn bills, clean up your mess, and get the hell off my land,” Dorin told the company. “We are done with you.”

The Energy Mix has asked MAGA Energy for comment, and will update this story when we hear back.