There’s a growing chance a Super El Niño is coming

 There’s a growing chance a Super El Niño is coming

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Is it hot in here or is it just the weakening trade winds over the Pacific? El Niño, a naturally occurring weather pattern, now has an 80% chance of developing by the end of August, according to the UN’s World Meteorological Organization. The phenomenon could have wide-ranging effects on the global economy, hitting everything from trade to agriculture to energy. What is El Niño? We’ll never be able to harness Bill Nye’s raw passion for meteorological phenomena, but we can try. Every two to seven years, trade winds that normally blow from east to west weaken or reverse course over the Pacific Ocean, pushing warm waters usually headed toward Asia back to the Americas. No one is totally sure why this happens, just that when it does, it stirs up a whole bunch of weather and storm drama around the globe: El Niño’s effects are varied across different regions. It usually increases the temperature and dries out areas like Australia and southeast Asia, making them more susceptible to wildfires and droughts. Meanwhile, the southern US and Central America become more at risk of flooding. It can also disrupt normal weather patterns, and make hurricanes and monsoons more extreme or unpredictable. Now put a “Super” in front of it The odds of a “Super El Niño,” which occurs when the water in a specific area of the Pacific rises above two degrees celsius, have also jumped from 25% to 37%, according to the National Weather Service. A normal El Niño is classified by only a half a degree celsius temperature increase. Some data suggests that a deep wave of abnormally warm water could push Pacific Ocean temps higher than they’ve been in a decade, resulting in a record-setting year for global temperatures in 2027. Big picture: Scientists have warned that this El Niño could be supercharged by the warming climate, exacerbating already strained supply chains for everything from fertilizer to fuel. One study from Dartmouth estimated that in the five-year fallout from the 1997–1998 El Niño, there was a $5.7 trillion drop in global GDP.